Unlocking global growth: Export opportunities for U.S. biofuels in a new policy era

Export opportunities for U.S. biofuels are expanding as decarbonisation policies reshape the global energy landscape, especially across key markets such as Canada, the UK, the EU, and Japan. Major regulatory changes in these regions are driving new demand for renewable fuels, with significant implications for producers, exporters, investors, and compliance professionals.

The international biofuels sector is being transformed as governments across the world tighten carbon targets and introduce sustainability mandates. For U.S. producers, these shifting policies create not only challenges, but genuine growth opportunities – particularly as export partners implement frameworks that reward lower-carbon, advanced fuels. Staying ahead requires a clear understanding of market requirements and readiness to adapt to evolving standards.

Canada: Clean Fuel Regulations build persistent demand

Canada is the largest importer of U.S. ethanol, supported by the country’s ambitious Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). The CFR now compels gasoline and diesel suppliers to reduce lifecycle carbon intensity, with requirements tightening notably by 2030. Since July 2023, a new credit trading system rewards low-carbon fuel imports, while land use and biodiversity criteria ensure sustainability compliance. Provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia have introduced stricter domestic content rules, but the demand for U.S. supply – and the complexity of compliance – continues to increase.

UK: SAF mandates and evolving trade access

The UK launched its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate at 2% in 2025, with a target of 10% by 2030 and 22% in 2040. The easing of ethanol import restrictions through a recent UK–US trade deal further opens the market to U.S. suppliers, provided they are able to comply with local verification and certification structures, like the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO). Domestic UK producers are urging for broader recognition of ethanol-based SAF pathways, indicating evolving market dynamics and potential future legislative changes.

European Union: Ambitious ReFuelEU and maritime rules

The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime initiatives have locked in rapidly rising minimum blends for SAF and tight carbon intensity targets for marine fuels, with advanced feedstocks and strict traceability at the core. The exclusion of certain crops, prioritisation of advanced biofuel pathways, and the adoption of RED III/Annex IX requirements make the EU both a lucrative but highly complex export destination for U.S. companies. Certification and compliance will be critical differentiators as volumes scale.

Japan: Shifting policy towards U.S. ethanol

Japan’s recent policy reforms now recognise U.S. corn ethanol in bio-ETBE, with national targets set for E10 blends by 2030 and E20 by 2040. This provides a new, expanding pathway for U.S. ethanol exports, backed by government support and regulatory change.

Helping to unlock potential

As new decarbonisation laws and sustainability mandates expand globally, U.S. biofuel companies willing to prioritise compliance and transparency will be best placed to thrive. With informed, expert guidance, navigating evolving regulations in Canada, the UK, the EU, and Japan becomes not just manageable, but a strategic advantage, helping biofuel stakeholders to unlock the full potential of the coming export boom.

Navigating global export opportunities: the value of expert partnership

The rapidly changing international regulatory landscape, combined with ever more complex sustainability requirements, can make identifying and capitalising on export opportunities for U.S. biofuels especially challenging. This is where a specialist partner such as Peterson Solutions can add tangible value. As a highly experienced consultancy with offices across the globe, we support biofuels customers across the US to make the most of emerging opportunities through:

• Market entry assessments based on up-to-date policy intelligence and technical feasibility, helping stakeholders understand real-world opportunities and barriers.
• Compliance and certification support, covering both local and international sustainability standards, voluntary scheme selection, life-cycle documentation, and engagement with verifiers – ensuring that export documentation meets the latest requirements.
• Policy tracking and forecasting to alert organisations to emerging legislation and likely future changes, providing confidence amid evolving rules.
• Stakeholder mapping and engagement to facilitate connections with regulators, industry bodies, and supply chain partners in target markets, accelerating time-to-market and minimising commercial risk.

By drawing on these insights and expertise, U.S. producers, exporters, and investors position themselves to not only navigate, but lead in complex, high-potential international markets, maximising sustainable growth and global competitiveness.

This article is current as of September 2025. For the latest guidance and eligibility details, contact us for a tailored assessment.